Appendix C — Complementing results

Table C.1: Predictability of the revisions based on SIC
Expl. variable N F-value Compl/Naive Intrm1/Naive Intrm2/Naive Intrm3/Naive Intrm4/Naive
Total revenue 384 - 1 1 1 1 1
Direct taxes 402 - 1 1 1 1 1
Indirect taxes \(R_{t-4,m}\) 402 - 0.99 1 1 1 1
Social contributions \(x_{t,m}^{1}+R_{t-1,m}\) 384 0 0.98 0.99 1 1 1
Total expenditure \(1_{\left[t\geq2014Q2\right]}\) 384 - 0.99 0.99 0.99 1 1
Social transfers \(\sum\limits_{j=1}^{4}Q_{t}^{j}+1_{\left[t\geq2014Q2\right]}+x_{t,m}^{1}\) 402 0 0.94 0.94 0.99 0.99 1
Purchases \(\sum\limits_{j=1}^{4}Q_{t}^{j}+x_{t,m}^{1}\) 384 0 0.87 0.87 0.99 0.99 1
Gov. compensation \(1_{\left[t\geq2014Q2\right]}+x_{t,m}^{1}+R_{t-5,m}\) 384 0 0.96 0.97 1 1 1
Gov. investment 384 - 1 1 1 1 1
GDP 444 - 1 1 1 1 1
Private consumption 442 - 1 1 1 1 1
Total investment \(x_{t,m}^{1}+R_{t-4,m}+R_{t-5,m}\) 443 0 0.95 0.97 1 1 1
Exports \(R_{t-2,m}+R_{t-4,m}\) 437 0 0.92 1 1 1 1
Gov. consumption 428 - 1 1 1 1 1
Comp. of employees \(\sum\limits_{m=1}^{10}C_{m}+R_{t-1,m}\) 420 0 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92

Figure C.1: Revision paths across variables in the pre-2014Q2 subsample

Figure C.2: Revision paths across variables in the post-2014Q2 subsample